Unpack India’s IWT suspension, Vienna Convention’s role, and Pakistan’s water crisis. Essential for UPSC, SSC, and banking exams. Boost prep with Atharva Examwise!
Can India Unilaterally Suspend the Indus Waters Treaty?
The 1960 Indus Waters Treaty (IWT), brokered by the World Bank, allocates six Indus Basin rivers between India and Pakistan. India controls the eastern rivers (Ravi, Beas, Sutlej), while Pakistan holds rights to the western rivers (Indus, Jhelum, Chenab). Following the Pahalgam terror attack (April 2025), India declared the IWT “in abeyance,” sparking debates over legality and consequences.
Legal Framework: Vienna Convention vs. IWT Provisions
IWT Article XII: The treaty can only be terminated via a “duly ratified” mutual agreement. Unilateral suspension isn’t explicitly permitted211.
Vienna Convention (Article 62): Allows treaty suspension if a “fundamental change of circumstances” invalidates its basis. Though India isn’t a VCLT signatory, the ICJ recognizes this principle as customary law26.
India’s Argument: Claims “fundamental changes” due to Pakistan’s cross-border terrorism justify reassessing obligations. However, ICJ precedents (e.g., 1997 Gabčíkovo-Nagymaros case) set a high bar for proving such changes811.
Key Legal Conflict: While India uses “abeyance” to imply temporary suspension, experts argue this term lacks legal grounding. The move risks reputational damage as a “rules-based actor”810.
Impact on Pakistan: Agriculture, Power, and Economy
Pakistan’s economy and ecology hinge on the Indus:
Agriculture: 80% of farmland (16 million hectares) relies on Indus water. Disrupted flows could cripple cotton (60% of exports) and basmati rice crops49.
Hydropower: 33% of Pakistan’s electricity comes from Indus-dependent plants like Tarbela. Reduced flows may worsen its $9 billion power-sector debt9.
Economic Fallout: With $130 billion external debt and $8 billion forex reserves, water scarcity could trigger inflation and IMF dependency9.
Short-Term Measures: India could halt flood data sharing, escalate dam storage, or divert water via existing infrastructure (e.g., Bhakra Dam)411.
Key Takeaways for Competitive Exams
IWT Provisions: Eastern rivers (India) vs. western rivers (Pakistan); no unilateral exit clause611.
Vienna Convention: Article 62’s “fundamental change” requires proof of unforeseeable, transformative shifts28.
Pakistan’s Vulnerability: 80% agriculture dependency, 33% hydropower at risk49.
Strategic Implications: India’s move aims to pressure Pakistan on terrorism, risking diplomatic isolation710.
Why This Matters for Exams
UPSC: Topics include international treaties, India-Pakistan relations, and water diplomacy.
SSC/State PSCs: Focus on current affairs (March 2025) and bilateral agreements.
Banking Exams: Economic impacts of resource disputes and ESG considerations.
Exam Tip: Expect questions on IWT’s legal framework, Vienna Convention, and geopolitical strategies in essay/GS papers.
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